LibDems third again, as Conservatives surge ahead in Tottenham Hale by-election

Haringey Conservatives are today calling the Tottenham Hale by-election results 'little short of sensational' for the Tories after a c13% swing against Labour saw Labour squeak home with only 46% of the votes cast. Local Conservative candidate, Tony Cox, was the main beneficiary of the slump in Labour's vote, increasing the Tories' share of the vote to just short of 30%.

The Liberal-Democrats, marginalised in what was clearly seen by voters as a 2-horse race between the main 2 Parties, polled less than 20% of the vote. Conservatives say that Lib-Dem claims that only they could beat Labour were empty boasts and, instead, helped Labour hold the seat by splitting the anti-Labour vote.

Conservatives say that the lessons from the by-election are:

1. voting Lib-Dem lets Labour in through the back door when the numbers consistently show only the Conservatives can beat Labour in Tottenham (if the 19% of voters who voted Lib-Dem had instead voted Conservative, then Labour would have lost in Tottenham Hale)

2. if Labour can only poll 46% in a previously rock-solid Ward then every Ward in Tottenham is potentially up for Conservative grabs.

Said jubilant Conservative candidate, Tony Cox:

"This was one of Labour's safest Wards in Tottenham yet we came very close to winning in this by-election. Lib-Dem claims that only they could win have been shown to be empty boasts. Instead, voting Lib-Dem on 23 Jan simply allowed Labour to sneak in via the back door.

The Conservative results are little short of sensational. If Labour cannot even poll 50% in a hitherto rock-solid Ward like Tottenham Hale, then any Ward in Tottenham is up for Conservative grabs."

ENDS.

Notes to Editors:

1. Swing calculation is as follows: Labour's vote share fell by 15.29% i.e. from 61.69% in May 2002 to 46.40% in Jan 2003. The Conservatives' vote share rose by 12.37% i.e. from 16.77% to 29.14%. The swing from Labour to the Conservatives was therefore c13.6% i.e. half 15.29 + 12.37. Put another way, for every 100 voters who voted in May 2002, circa 13 fewer voted Labour and instead voted Tory.

2. Results from 23 Jan 2003 and May 2002 were as follows:

Jan 2003 VOTES CAST

(Vote share)

Labour 691

46.4%

Cox (Con) 434

29.14%

Collins (LD) 296

19.90%

SA 68

4.6%

Turnout 18%

May 2002 VOTE SHARES

LAB 61.69%

CONS 16.77%

LIB DEM 14.61%

GREEN PARTY 4.58%

SOCIALIST ALLIANCE 2.35%

What they said...

 'The Conservatives had a big swing at Tottenham Hale in Haringey Borough, north London'     

   - The Guardian, 24th January 2003.

'The main winners were unfortunately the Tories. Despite their triumphalist antics at the count, for Labour the result is little short of a disaster, a drop of over 25% in their vote on a marginally reduced turnout.'                                                            

   - Haringey Socialist Alliance, 24th January 2003

.... and what Haringey's LibDem opposition leader Ross Laird said....

The Tories abortive come-back bid totally failed -  25th January 2003

EVEN A BROKEN WATCH GETS IT RIGHT TWICE A DAY!!!